Two energy paths, one widening gap

The Climate, Health & Equity Brief is GMMB’s take on the latest news on the current impacts of climate change. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can do so by clicking here.

Hot Topic: Divergence. In a world fractured by geopolitical conflict, economic volatility, and sharp political divides, the new year opened with another widening rift: as the global economy races toward a 21st‑century energy system, the United States is increasingly betting on fuels and policies of the past, with growing consequences at home and abroad.

Globally, clean energy investment and deployment continue to accelerate. The International Energy Agency estimates that two‑thirds of global energy investment—$2.2 trillion of $3.3 trillion—went to clean energy technologies in 2025, helping renewables overtake coal in global electricity generation for the first time. The European Union, India, and several emerging economies expanded clean power capacity fast enough to meet their rising demand, and China’s scale in manufacturing solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries has helped drive down costs.

Yet the U.S. is moving decidedly against the current. Over the past year, the administration has withdrawn the U.S. from key global climate pacts, further weakened scientific and regulatory agencies, attempted to freeze offshore wind leasing and construction, rolled back emissions standards, moved to cancel or revise more than $83 billion in clean‑energy loans, further loosened pollution constraints, and pushed to keep aging coal plants online despite an estimated cost to consumers of $3 billion per year.

Perhaps the starkest example of the U.S. approach is Mr. Trump’s push to tap Venezuela’s vast crude reserves. Experts say the move would require tens of billions of dollars, take a decade to deliver results, and drive up emissions by expanding some of the dirtiest fuel on the planet. Critics argue this choice defies market reality, locking in costly, polluting assets as the world moves toward cleaner energy.

Yet the economic costs of continued reliance on fossil fuels are clear. NOAA reports that U.S. extreme weather events caused more than $100 billion in damage last year alone, and a new assessment warns that unchecked warming could push the global economy toward “planetary insolvency,” with losses reaching up to $25 trillion a year by 2050 unless governments slash emissions.

As the U.S. pursues policies associated with higher energy and disaster costs, greater health burdens, environmental damage, and greater long-term risk, it is increasingly out of step with a modern energy transition that global markets are rapidly moving toward, with the costs increasingly borne by American workers, consumers, taxpayers, and the environment.

Human Health

Mr. Trump’s EPA plans to stop counting the value of lives saved and other health benefits when setting air pollution rules, focusing instead on the costs to industry and making it easier to weaken limits on harmful pollutants. (The New York Times)

Texas is rapidly approving dozens of new and expanded petrochemical plants that are expected to significantly increase air pollution, deepen climate impacts, and heighten cancer and respiratory risks, especially in already overburdened communities. (Grist)

A new study finds that climate change could cause 500,000 additional malaria deaths across Africa by 2050, as extreme weather damages housing, protective equipment, and healthcare access. (Carbon Brief)

Bangladesh’s warming climate and erratic rainfall are accelerating mosquito‑borne diseases in Dhaka, deepening health risks in neighborhoods where more than 272,000 pollution‑linked premature deaths occur each year. (Grist)

Planetary Health

A new study finds that including ocean damage in the social cost of carbon will nearly double climate damages to $97.2 per ton by capturing losses to fisheries, coastal infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health. (ABC News)

Greenland’s vast ice sheet lost 105 billion metric tons of ice in 12 months, part of a 29-year thinning trend that’s raising global seas and opening a new China-backed shipping route along the Northern Sea. (The New York Times)

A new study finds rapid warming is forcing some Antarctic penguins to breed nearly two weeks earlier than a decade ago—the fastest shift recorded in a vertebrate—upending food timing, intensifying competition, and putting some colonies on track for possible local extinction by century’s end. (LA Times)

Equity

A new Oxfam analysis finds that by January 10, the world’s richest 1% had already used up their entire fair annual “carbon budget” for limiting warming to 1.5°C—and the wealthiest 0.1% had done so by January 3. (Euractiv)

U.S. plans to seize and massively ramp up imports of Venezuela’s heavy crude will funnel that oil to refineries clustered in Black Gulf Coast communities, raising alarms that the dirty fuels will deepen cancer and pollution in the region. (Capital B)

The EPA is proposing to weaken Clean Water Act protections by narrowing water‑quality reviews and restricting tribal authority, a shift that experts say would undercut treaty rights and strip tribes of one of their most effective tools for protecting their waters from federal projects. (Grist)

Nigeria’s smallholder farmers report that climate change–driven droughts and floods are severely damaging staple crops, and say Nigeria urgently needs crop-specific adaptations to safeguard food security. (The Conversation)

Politics & Economy

A new report warns that climate impacts are arriving faster than expected, with unchecked warming on track to drive “planetary insolvency” and up to $25 trillion a year in losses by 2050 unless governments plan for worst‑case scenarios and slash emissions. (New Scientist)

U.S. disaster damage topped $100 billion in 2025—even without a single hurricane—driven by costly wildfires and a record 21 billion-dollar thunderstorm events. (The New York Times)

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose 2.4 percent in 2025 after two years of decline, driven by surging electricity demand that pushed utilities to burn more coal despite rapid growth in solar power. (The New York Times)

While Mr. Trump has pledged to unleash a Venezuelan oil windfall by sending U.S. companies to tap the country’s vast reserves, experts warn it could take up to $100 billion and a decade of stable governance in a nation hobbled by political turmoil and crumbling infrastructure. (The New York Times)

Experts say Mr. Trump’s bid to revive Venezuela’s vast oil reserves is a major climate threat, because the country’s extra‑heavy, methane‑intensive crude is among the world’s dirtiest. (POLITICO)

The annual World Economic Forum gathering at Davos—once a hub for corporate climate pledges—largely sidelined climate and biodiversity as CEOs retreated under political backlash.  (The New York Times)

At Davos, Mr. Trump mocked “money‑losing windmills” while China’s vice premier touted clean‑energy partnerships and green trade, laying bare the starkly divergent paths of the world’s two biggest climate polluters. (POLITICO)

President Trump’s 2025 freeze on offshore wind leasing and construction has crippled a power source Northeast states were counting on to deliver tens of gigawatts, sharply increasing the risk of higher energy costs and grid instability in states like New York and Massachusetts. (Grist)

A New York Times investigation finds that six years after Wall Street pledged to “reshape finance” for the climate, net-zero alliances have largely collapsed and major U.S. banks are doubling down on fossil fuels amid intense political pressure. (The New York Times)

Japanese companies now top CDP’s global ranking on climate leadership at 22%, ahead of the UK (17%), EU (16%), China (8%) and Southeast Asia (8%). (Reuters)

Administration Watch:

• The Trump administration has withdrawn from the UNFCCC, a bedrock climate treaty, making the U.S. the first country ever to exit the agreement. (CNN)
• The Trump administration has again withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement. (The New York Times)
• The EPA is eliminating over a dozen executive positions, a move insiders say will jeopardize institutional knowledge and the agency’s effectiveness. (E&E News)
• The DOE is canceling or revising more than $83 billion in Biden-era clean energy loans, reflecting Trump’s shift toward fossil fuel projects. (The New York Times)
• The Trump administration is not renewing expiring FEMA contracts, laying off thousands of staff who are actively working on disaster recovery efforts across the country. (NPR)
• Mr. Trump has withdrawn the U.S. from the Green Climate Fund, the world’s largest climate finance system, which has distributed over $19 billion. (POLITICO)
• The administration’s new dietary guidelines could require about 100M+ more acres of farmland a year, speed deforestation, and add hundreds of millions of tons of emissions. (The Guardian)
• Mr. Trump wants to keep as many coal plants open as possible at a cost to consumers of $3 billion annually. (The New York Times)
• The administration has ordered the National Park Service to remove or alter dozens of exhibits across at least 17 national parks that reference climate change, environmental harm, or the mistreatment of Native Americans. (The Washington Post)

Action

Renewable energy’s growth—driven largely by cheap Chinese solar, wind and batteries—is transforming the global power system so fast that renewables overtook coal in 2025 and now appear on track to push fossil fuels into decline, despite strong headwinds. (Science)

After more than 20 years of negotiations, the world’s first High Seas Treaty has entered into force, giving countries a new legal framework to protect marine biodiversity across nearly half the planet’s ocean beyond national borders. (The New York Times)

Scientific organizations are racing to preserve hundreds of datasets, websites and federal reports that have been deleted by the Trump administration. (E&E News)

A new report found that 33 states and 272 cities, counties, and regions have launched climate resilience plans—many updated in the last decade—despite major obstacles to federal climate resilience funding. (Brookings)

The EU banned desflurane—a surgical anesthetic 7,000 times more polluting than carbon dioxide—and U.S. hospitals are joining the shift to cleaner alternatives to reduce climate impacts. (Inside Climate News)

A year after the American Climate Corps was shut down ahead of Mr. Trump’s return to office, a patchwork of state- and locally funded programs continues similar climate service work, often with lower profiles and tailored to local needs. (Grist)

A federal judge struck down the Trump administration’s halt to Revolution Wind, allowing the $6.2 billion offshore wind project to continue and deliver clean energy to over 350,000 homes in Connecticut and Rhode Island. (The New York Times)

Michigan has filed a sweeping lawsuit against BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell and the American Petroleum Institute, alleging a decades-long conspiracy to stifle EVs and clean energy, keep consumers hooked on fossil fuels, and violate antitrust laws. (Jurist)

Life as We Know It

As energy prices surged over the past year, millions of U.S. households fell behind on utility bills, with nearly one in 20 now at risk of collections, as rising electricity and heating costs leave families facing shutoffs, mounting debt, and ongoing financial strain. (BBC)

Just seven homes have been rebuilt one year after the Palisades and Eaton fires destroyed 13,000, highlighting the slow recovery process after wildfires and the need for more effective public policy. (Grist)

Climate change is rapidly shrinking the number of places that can host the Winter Olympics, forcing the IOC to consider rotating the Games among a small pool of cities, moving events earlier in the season, and leaning heavily on energy‑ and water‑hungry artificial snow. (AP)

Kicker

Join Grist, Project Drawdown and the Climate Mental Health Network on Thursday, Feb. 5, for a webinar on Thriving in an Age of Disasters: How to Build Emotional Resilience and Take Action. To register, click here.

“No one cares what you think of climate change…everyone cares what the economics are, and the economics are going straight to green energy.”

-Australian mining executive Andrew Forrest

The GMMB Climate, Health & Equity Brief would not be possible without the contributions of the larger GMMB team—Catherine Ahmad, Stefana Hendronetto, Nikki Melamed, Kenzie Perrow, Krishna Rajpara, and Marci Welford. Feedback on the Brief is welcome and encouraged and should be sent to [email protected].